How Long Do Most Families Stay in Their Home?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) keeps historical data on many aspects of homeownership. One of the data points that has changed dramatically is the median tenure of a family in a home. As the graph below shows, for over twenty years (1985-2008), the median tenure averaged exactly six years. However, since 2008, that average is almost nine years – an increase of almost 50%.

Why the dramatic increase?

The reasons for this change are plentiful! The fall in home prices during the housing crisis left many homeowners in a negative equity situation (where their home was worth less than the mortgage on the property). Also, the uncertainty of the economy made some homeowners much more fiscally conservative about making a move. With home prices rising dramatically over the last several years, 93.7% of homes with a mortgage are now in a positive equity situation with 79.1% of them having at least 20% equity, according to CoreLogic. With the economy coming back and wages starting to increase, many homeowners are in a much better financial situation than they were just a few short years ago. One other reason for the increase was brought to light during a recent presentation by Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of NAR, at the Realtor’s Summit in San Diego, CA. Yun pointed to the fact that historically, young homeowners who were either looking for more space to accommodate their growing family or looking for a better school district were more likely to move more often (every 5 years). The homeownership rate among young families, however, has still not caught up to previous generations resulting in the jump we have seen in median tenure!

What does this mean for housing?

Many believe that a large portion of homeowners are not in a house that is best for their current family circumstances. They could be baby boomers living in an empty, four-bedroom colonial, or a millennial couple planning to start a family that currently lives in a one-bedroom condo. These homeowners are ready to make a move. Since the lack of housing inventory is a major challenge in the current housing market, this could be great news.

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Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.22% over the next 5 years. The prediction for cumulative appreciation fell from 21.4% to 17.3% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.3%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

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Dewey Blanton Realtors® have earned the esteemed certification of PRICING STRATEGY ADVISOR.

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.22% over the next 5 years. The prediction for cumulative appreciation fell from 21.4% to 17.3% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.3%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

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Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.22% over the next 5 years. The prediction for cumulative appreciation fell from 21.4% to 17.3% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.3%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

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Be a better informed consumer

When preparing to buy or sell a home, you might search online real estate portals or keep an eye on local real estate news, but there’s a better source of real estate data.

Thanks to the Data Relevance Project—a partnership among local REALTOR® associations and their multiple listing services, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, and the Texas Association of REALTORS®—you can get a firsthand look at what’s happening in your market.

The 2016 Texas Real Estate Year in Review Report includes information on 25 metropolitan statistical areas across the state, often with county-level data, as well. Learn how home prices have changed, the number of active listings, how long homes stay on the market, the amount of housing inventory, apartment rents and vacancy rates, and affordability figures—all for your area.

This data can help guide your housing or real estate decisions and make you a more informed consumer when it comes time to consult with a local REALTOR®.

FHA Appraiser Identity Theft

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) - Office of Inspector General (OIG) recently became aware of a number of instances of appraiser identity theft. The fraudulent schemes varied, but stemmed from someone using the state certification number of a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) roster appraiser. In many cases, the harm was made possible when an FHA roster appraiser provided his or her personal identification number (PIN) for the desktop appraisal software to a colleague or supervisor. The FHA roster appraiser was unaware of the misuse until it came to light… Read More

FinCEN Renews Anti-Money Laundering Efforts for High-End Real Estate Transactions

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) of the U.S. Department of Treasury is again extending the Global Targeting Orders (GTOs) that impose data collection and reporting requirements on title companies involved in certain high-end real estate transactions.

Set to expire on February 23, 2017, FinCEN discovered that a significant portion of the reported covered transactions in the latest GTOs were linked to possible criminal activity by the individuals revealed to be the beneficial owners of the shell company purchasers. As a result, FinCEN is extending the current GTOs… Read More

NAR Seeks Improvements to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act

The Digital Millennium Copyright Act (“DMCA”) of 1998 endeavors to balance the interests of internet service providers and copyright owners when copyright infringement occurs in the digital environment. 

In comments filed with the U.S. Copyright Office on February 21, NAR stressed that the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) is a highly effective risk management tool for owners of brokerage websites.  However, NAR suggested three areas for improvement of the DMCA. (1) modifying the online registration process for copyright agents to permit naming of multiple… Read More

Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Mark Since 2007 [INFOGRAPHIC]

Highlights:

• Sales of existing homes reached the highest pace in a decade at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million.
• January marked the 59^th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median home price rose 7.1% to $228,900.
• NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun had this to say, “Much of the country saw robust sales activity last month as strong hiring and improved consumer confidence at the end of last year appear to have sparked considerable interest in buying a home.“ 

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Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Mark Since 2007 [INFOGRAPHIC]

Highlights:

• Sales of existing homes reached the highest pace in a decade at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million.
• January marked the 59^th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median home price rose 7.1% to $228,900.
• NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun had this to say, “Much of the country saw robust sales activity last month as strong hiring and improved consumer confidence at the end of last year appear to have sparked considerable interest in buying a home.“ 

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The Impact of Homeownership on Family Health

The National Association of Realtors recently released a study titled ‘Social Benefits of Homeownership and Stable Housing.’ The study confirmed a long-standing belief of most Americans:

“Owning a home embodies the promise of individual autonomy and is the aspiration of most American households. Homeownership allows households to accumulate wealth and social status, and is the basis for a number of positive social, economic, family and civic outcomes.”

Today, we want to cover the section of the report that quoted several studies concentrating on the impact homeownership has on the health of family members. Here are some of the major findings on this issue revealed in the report:

• There is a strong positive relationship between living in poor housing and a range of health problems, including respiratory conditions such as asthma, exposure to toxic substances, injuries and mental health. Homes of owners are generally in better condition than those of renters.
• Findings reveal that increases in housing wealth were associated with better health outcomes for homeowners.
• Low-income people who recently became homeowners reported higher life satisfaction, higher self-esteem, and higher perceived control over their lives.
• Homeowners report higher self-esteem and happiness than renters. For example, homeowners are more likely to believe that they can do things as well as anyone else, and they report higher self-ratings on their physical health even after controlling for age and socioeconomic factors.
• Renters who become homeowners not only experience a significant increase in housing satisfaction but also obtain a higher satisfaction even in the same home in which they resided as renters.
• Social mobility variables, such as the family financial situation and housing tenure during childhood and adulthood, impacted one’s self-rated health.
• Homeowners have a significant health advantage over renters, on average. Homeowners are 2.5 percent more likely to have good health. When adjusting for an array of demographic, socioeconomic, and housing–related characteristics, the homeowner advantage is even larger at 3.1 percent.

Bottom Line

People often talk about the financial benefits of homeownership. As we can see, there are also social benefits of owning your own home.

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Are You 1 of the 59 Million Planning to Buy This Year?

According to a survey conducted by Bankrate.com, one in four Americans are considering buying a home this year. If this statistic proves to be true, that means that 59 million people will be looking to enter the housing market in 2017.

The survey also revealed 3 key takeaways:

1. Those most likely to buy are ‘Older Millennials’ (ages 27-36) or ‘Generation X’ (ages 37-52)
2. Minorities, particularly African-Americans, were twice as likely to respond that they were considering purchasing a home this year than white respondents.
3. Many potential buyers believe they need to put 20% down and need to have perfect credit to own and are unaware of programs that would allow them to buy now.

Holden Lewis, a mortgage analyst for Bankrate.com, pointed to one big reason why many Americans are starting to consider homeownership:

“Having kids and raising a family is a primary reason why Americans take the leap into homeownership—many consider it a key component of the American dream.”

Bottom Line

If buying a home is a part of your dream for 2017, meet with a local professional who can help you determine if you are able to.

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Access: A Key Component in Getting Your House SOLD!

So, you’ve decided to sell your house. You’ve hired a real estate professional to help you with the entire process, and they have asked you what level of access you want to provide to potential buyers. There are four elements to a quality listing. At the top of the list is Access, followed by Condition, Financing, and Price. There are many levels of access that you can provide to your agent so that he or she can show your home.

Here are five levels of access that you can give to buyers, along with a brief description:

1. Lockbox on the Door – this allows buyers the ability to see the home as soon as they are aware of the listing, or at their convenience.
2. Providing a Key to the Home – although the buyer’s agent may need to stop by an office to pick up the key, there is little delay in being able to show the home.
3. Open Access with a Phone Call – the seller allows showing with just a phone call’s notice.
4. By Appointment Only (example: 48 Hour Notice) – Many buyers who are relocating for a new career or promotion start working in that area prior to purchasing their home. They often like to take advantage of free time during business hours (such as their lunch break) to view potential homes. Because of this, they may not be able to plan their availability far in advance or may be unable to wait 48 hours to see the house.
5. Limited Access (example: the home is only available on Mondays or Tuesdays at 2pm or for only a couple of hours a day) - This is the most difficult way to be able to show your house to potential buyers.

In a competitive marketplace, access can make or break your ability to get the price you are looking for, or even sell your house at all.

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US Housing Market Is Moving into ‘Buy Territory’!

According to the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent (BH&J) Index, the U.S. housing market has continued to move deeper into buy territory, supporting the belief that housing markets across the country remain a sound investment. The BH&J Index is a quarterly report that attempts to answer the question:

In today’s housing market, is it better to rent or buy a home?

The index examines the entire US housing market and then isolates 23 major cities for comparison. The researchers “measure the relationship between purchasing property and building wealth through a buildup in equity versus renting a comparable property and investing in a portfolio of stocks and bonds.”  While most of the metropolitan markets examined moved further into buy territory (16 of the 23), markets like Dallas, Denver, and Houston are currently deep into rent territory. In these three markets, it is estimated that renting will top homeownership 7 out of 10 times. Due to a lack of inventory, the home prices in the Dallas, Denver, and Houston areas have increased by 11.6%, 8.3%, and 6.6% respectively. Home prices in these areas will begin to return to more normal levels once residents realize that renting is not the best option, therefore bringing home affordability back as well.

Bottom Line

The majority of the country is strongly in buy territory. Buying a home makes sense socially and financially, as rents are predicted to increase substantially in the next year. Protect yourself from rising rents by locking in your housing cost with a mortgage payment now. To Find Out More About the Study: The BH&J Index and other FAU real estate activities are sponsored by Investments Limited of Boca Raton. The BH&J Index is published quarterly and is available online at http://ift.tt/1THpK22.

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Little things that make a big impression on buyers

It doesn’t take much to change a buyer’s impression of a home.

Add some peeling paint, a leaky faucet, and dirty dishes in the sink of an otherwise appealing house, and suddenly the buyer crosses that property off his list. Just as minor imperfections can turn off a buyer, a few small actions by you can make your home seem even more appealing.

Fix conspicuous problems. You want to put your home’s best foot forward. If you can’t afford to remedy all the problems with the house, at least fix obvious ones. A buyer will notice the rotten porch railing or cracked window pane on a casual walk-through.

Show the owner’s manuals. Sure, everything’s available online, but you still need to know the model number of your oven, dishwasher, and microwave when something breaks. Showing buyers that you’ve kept that information suggests that you’ve taken care of other things related to the house.

Make an effort outside. Short grass makes bare patches less obvious, and a few bags of mulch around trees and in flower beds can work magic on an otherwise lackluster yard. Add in a planter of colorful flowers by the front door, and you’ve added significantly to your curb appeal.

A little effort goes a long way with buyers, so ensure your home makes a great first impression. 

CFPB Petition for Rehearing PHH Case Granted

On February 16, 2017, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) petition for rehearing by the full bench of the D.C. Circuit (en banc), vacating the three-judge panel decision issued on October 11, 2016, in the case of CFPB v. PHH Corporation.

Recall that in October, the three-judge panel vacated a $109 million penalty imposed by the CFPB against PHH for allegedly violating the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) by paying for referrals where there is… Read More

Do You Know the Real Cost of Renting vs. Buying? [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights:

• Historically, the choice between renting or buying a home has been a close decision.
• Looking at the percentage of income needed to rent a median-priced home today (30%), vs. the percentage needed to buy a median-priced home (15%), the choice becomes obvious.
• Every market is different. Before you renew your lease again, find out if you could use your housing costs to own a home of your own!

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The Impact of Homeownership on Civic Involvement

The National Association of Realtors recently released a study titled ‘Social Benefits of Homeownership and Stable Housing.’ The study confirmed a long-standing belief of most Americans:

“Owning a home embodies the promise of individual autonomy and is the aspiration of most American households. Homeownership allows households to accumulate wealth and social status, and is the basis for a number of positive social, economic, family and civic outcomes.”

Today, we want to cover the section of the report that quoted several studies concentrating on the impact homeownership has on the civic participation of family members. Here are some of the major findings on this issue revealed in the report:

• Homeowners have a much greater financial stake in their neighborhoods than renters. With the median national home price in 2015 at $223,900, even a 5% decline in home values will translate into a loss of more than $11,195 for a typical homeowner.
• Because owners tend to remain in their homes longer, they add a degree of stability to their neighborhood.
• Homeowners also reap the financial gains of any appreciation in the value of their home, so they also tend to spend more time and money maintaining their residence, which also contributes to the overall quality of the surrounding community.
• Homeowners were found to be more politically active than renters with 77% of homeowners saying they had at some point voted in local elections compared with 52% of renters.
• There seems to be a greater awareness of the political process among homeowners. About 38% of homeowners knew the name of their local school board representative, compared with only 20% of renters.
• There is a higher incidence of membership in voluntary organizations and church attendance among homeowners.
• Homeownership does create social capital and provide residents with a platform from which to connect and interact with neighbors.
• Owning a home means owning part of a neighborhood, and a homeowner’s feelings of commitment to the home can arouse feelings of commitment to the neighborhood, which, in turn, can produce interactions with neighbors.

Bottom Line

People often talk about the financial benefits of homeownership. As we can see, there are also social benefits of owning your own home. *Next Thursday, we will report the study’s findings on the impact homeownership has on a family’s health.

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The Great News About Rising Prices for Homeowners

Recently there has been a lot of talk about home prices and if they are accelerating too quickly. As we mentioned before, in some areas of the country, seller supply (homes for sale) cannot keep up with the number of buyers out looking for a home, which has caused prices to rise. The great news about rising prices, however, is that according to CoreLogic’s US Economic Outlook, the average American household gained over $11,000 in equity over the course of the last year, largely due to home value increases. The map below was created using the same report from CoreLogic and shows the average equity gain per mortgaged home from June 2015 to June 2016 (the latest data available). For those who are worried that we are doomed to repeat 2006 all over again, it is important to note that homeowners are investing their new-found equity in their homes and themselves, not in depreciating assets. The added equity is helping families put their children through college, invest in starting small businesses, allowing them to pay off their mortgage sooner or move up to the home that will better suit their needs now.

Bottom Line

CoreLogic predicts that home prices will appreciate by another 5% by this time next year. If you are a homeowner looking to take advantage of your home equity by moving up to your dream home, contact an agent in your area to discuss your options!

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Get Ready For Tax Reform

Proposals to overhaul the U.S. tax system are gaining steam in Washington, with plenty at stake for homeowners. 

National Association of REALTORS® President Bill Brown is speaking out and committing to fight on behalf of important tax incentives like the mortgage interest deduction, the state and local property tax deduction, and 1031 like-kind exchanges. 

Brown also made it clear that REALTORS® will make their voices heard as the conversation continues… Read More

First Comes Love… Then Comes Mortgage?

According to the National Association of REALTORS most recent Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers, married couples once again dominated the first-time homebuyer statistics in 2016 at 58% of all buyers. It is no surprise that having two incomes to save for down payments and contribute to monthly housing costs makes buying a home more attainable. But, many couples are also deciding to buy a home before spending what would be a down payment on a wedding, as unmarried couples made up 14% of all first-time buyers last year. If you’re single, don’t fret! Single women made up 18% of first-time buyers in 2016, while single men accounted for 8% of buyers. One recent article pointed to a sense of responsibility and commitment that drives many single women to want to own their home, rather than rent. Here is the breakdown of all first-time homebuyers in 2016 by percentage of all buyers, income, and age:

Bottom Line

You may not be that much different than those who have already purchased their first homes. Meet with a local real estate professional today who can help determine if your dream home is already within your grasp.

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3 Questions to Ask If You Want to Buy Your Dream Home

If you are debating purchasing a home right now, you are probably getting a lot of advice. Though your friends and family will have your best interest at heart, they may not be fully aware of your needs and what is currently happening in the real estate market. Ask yourself the following 3 questions to help determine if now is a good time for you to buy in today’s market.

1. Why am I buying a home in the first place?

This is truly the most important question to answer. Forget the finances for a minute. Why did you even begin to consider purchasing a home? For most, the reason has nothing to do with money. For example, a survey by Braun showed that over 75% of parents say “their child’s education is an important part of the search for a new home.” This survey supports a study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University which revealed that the top four reasons Americans buy a home have nothing to do with money. They are:

• A good place to raise children and for them to get a good education
• A place where you and your family feel safe
• More space for you and your family
• Control of that space

What does owning a home mean to you? What non-financial benefits will you and your family gain from owning a home? The answer to that question should be the biggest reason you decide to purchase or not.

2. Where are home values headed?

According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of homes sold in December (the latest data available) was $232,200, up 4.0% from last year. This increase also marks the 58th consecutive month with year-over-year gains. If we look at the numbers year over year, CoreLogic forecasted a rise by 4.7% from December 2016 to December 2017. On a home that costs $250,000 today, that same home will cost you an additional $11,750 if you wait until next year.

What does that mean to you?

Simply put, with prices increasing each month, it might cost you more if you wait until next year to buy. Your down payment will also need to be higher in order to account for the higher price of the home you wish to buy.

3. Where are mortgage interest rates headed?

A buyer must be concerned about more than just prices. The ‘long-term cost’ of a home can be dramatically impacted by even a small increase in mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors, and Fannie Mae have all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase over the next twelve months, as you can see in the chart below:

Bottom Line

Only you and your family will know for certain if now is the right time to purchase a home. Answering these questions will help you make that decision.

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Listing in the Winter Attracts More Serious Buyers

A recent study of more than 7 million home sales over the past four years revealed that the season in which a home is listed may be able to shed some light on the likelihood that the home will sell for more than asking price, as well as how quickly the sale will close. It’s no surprise that listing a home for sale during the spring saw the largest return, as the spring is traditionally the busiest season for real estate. What is surprising, though, is that listing during the winter came in second!

“Among spring listings, 18.7 percent of homes fetched above asking, with winter listings not far behind at 17.5 percent. While 48.0 percent of homes listed in spring sold within 30 days, 46.2 percent of homes in winter did the same.”

The study goes on to say that:

“Buyers [in the winter] often need to move, so they’re much less likely to make a lowball offer and they’ll often want to close quickly — two things that can make the sale much smoother.” 

Bottom Line

If you are debating listing your home for sale in 2017, keep in mind that the spring is when most other homeowners will decide to list their homes as well. Listing your home this winter will ensure that you have the best exposure to the serious buyers who are out looking now! The study used the astronomical seasons to determine which season the listing date fell into (Winter: Dec. 21 – Mar. 20; Spring: Mar. 21 – June 20; Summer: June 21 – Sept 21; Autumn: Sept 21 – Dec. 20).

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Supreme Court To Hear Property Rights Case

The United States Supreme Court has agreed to hear oral argument in an important property righst case, Murr v. State of Wisconsin, on March 20, 2017.

The Murr case, for which NAR submitted an Amicus Brief, arises from a Wisconsin’s family’s attempt to sell or develop a small river-front plot of land which they acquired in 1963 for investment purposes.  The family also owns a different, adjacent lot containing a small lake cabin they use for family vacations and recreation. The family of the late William Murr want to sell the vacant parcel, to fund repair of… Read More

Executive Order Guidance Released

The White House has released “Interim Guidance” on President Trump’s Executive Order (EO) that requires agencies to remove two rules for every new one they publish. The Interim Guidance fleshes out how the Office of Management and Budget will implement and monitor the EO.

The Interim Guidance clarifies several areas in terms of which regulations are covered by the EO, including:

• Only significant regulatory actions which cost the economy $100 million or more;
   
• Only applies to agencies that are required to send regulatory… Read More

USDA Acting State Directors

USDA Rural Development has posted the names and contact information for the Acting Directors of the USDA Rural Development State Offices. The Acting Directors will serve until the Trump Administration’s political appointments for these positions are made. 

USDA State Offices - Contact Information